je.st
news
Tag: iselle
Summary for Tropical Storm ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-01 10:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 the center of ISELLE was located near 13.5, -124.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm ISELLE Public Advisory Number 3
2014-08-01 10:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 ...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-08-01 10:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010847 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-01 04:26:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 02:26:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 02:25:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-01 04:26:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010226 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014 The satellite presentation of Iselle features an area of cold convective tops mainly to the north and east of the estimated center position, and the poleward outflow has been enhanced somewhat due to an upper-level trough to the northwest. The initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on a blend of the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the latest ADT from UW-CIMSS. Conditions appear favorable for steady intensification during the next couple of days. In fact, rapid strengthening is a possibility during the next 24 hours with the SHIPS RI index showing a 40 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. After 72 hours SSTs cool somewhat along the forecast track, which should result in gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a little from the previous advisory and is close to or just below the SHIPS model through the period and above the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the recent formation of the cyclone, and the initial position is a little to the south and west of previous estimates. Overall the track forecast reasoning has not changed, as Iselle will be steered generally west-northwestward south of the subtropical ridge for the next 72 hours or so. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid/upper-level trough digs equatorward along 135W, which should result is a slower westward motion late in the period. The track guidance envelope remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours and the only change to the NHC track during that time is a westward adjustment due to the initial position and motion. Late in the period the spread of the guidance increases a little, and the envelope has shifted northward this cycle. At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been adjusted northward and westward, but still lies south of the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.2N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] next »