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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 17
2014-08-04 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...ISELLE REACHES CATEGORY 4 STATUS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 136.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISELLE SHOULD THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-08-04 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 136.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 136.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 139.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 141.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 150.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 157.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 162.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-04 11:21:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 08:52:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 09:09:16 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-04 10:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040853 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no outer banding around a symmetric inner core. Satellite classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday, which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable environment described above. Iselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt. This general motion should continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that time due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific. Iselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to the cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge. Model guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-08-04 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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