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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-01 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... ...STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 the center of Norman was located near 16.3, -122.2 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-01 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 543 WTPZ31 KNHC 010251 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 ...NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... ...STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 122.2W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 122.2 West. Norman is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the weekend and into next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours but Norman is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-01 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 559 FOPZ11 KNHC 010251 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 53(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 125W 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 1(60) X(60) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 46(73) 1(74) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) X(37) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 26(46) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-01 04:51:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 509 WTPZ21 KNHC 010251 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 142.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 146.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-01 04:51:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 508 WTPZ41 KNHC 010251 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Several recent microwave passes indicate that Norman continues to feel the effects of northeasterly shear, with the cyclone vertically titled and its upper-level core disrupted in the northern semicircle. Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has disappeared on IR and visible imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have also decreased since the previous advisory, and therefore, the initial intensity has been decreased to 105 kt, and this value could be a little generous. Model guidance continues to indicate moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone for the next day or so, which should cause the gradual weakening to continue. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to lessen somewhat, but the cyclone is expected to begin entraining dry air from its surrounding environment. There may be some time between 24-48 hours when the lessening shear and warm SSTs could overcome the drier air in the environment to allow for either a steadying of intensity or perhaps even some slight re-strengthening. Beyond 48 hours, however, the environment is forecast to become even drier, which should induce another weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been changed little through 24 h, but now shows a leveling off of the intensity from 24-48 h. Steady weakening is still anticipated beyond that time. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/7 kt. Mid- to upper-level ridging that extends west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula to just northwest of the cyclone should steer Norman west-southwestward for the next several hours. By Saturday morning, the ridge should begin to become oriented more east-to-west then southeast-to-northwest by Sunday. This will cause the system to be steered on a more westward then west-northwestward track with an increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly left and is a little faster than the previous advisory. This forecast is generally between the previous NHC forecast and the consensus guidance track. Based on this forecast, Norman is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.3N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.3N 142.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 21.2N 146.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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