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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 19
2018-09-01 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 269 WTPZ31 KNHC 012051 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 ...NORMAN HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 125.1W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 125.1 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion with an slight increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. On the forecast track, Norman will approach the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-09-01 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 283 WTPZ21 KNHC 012050 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 149.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 125.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-01 16:56:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 14:56:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 15:34:16 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-01 16:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 734 WTPZ41 KNHC 011454 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Although satellite intensity estimates indicate that Norman has continued to weaken, the weakening trend appears to have abated. This is based on recent infrared imagery showing a better developed CDO feature accompanied by improved outflow, and also a well-defined closed eye now depicted in a 1148Z AMSR and 1158Z SSMIS microwave satellite images. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt, which is a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, with a little more weight placed on the TAFB estimate of T5.0/90 kt. Norman's initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. The aforementioned eye noted in the microwave passes greatly helped with determining the cyclone's location and past motion. Other than some slight forward speed adjustments made in the first 24 hours due to the faster initial motion, no significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. Norman is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next several days as the hurricane moves along the southern periphery of strong deep-layer ridge to the north. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Norman through 72 h, and then diverge noticeably after that time with the GFS taking Norman more westward in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models keep Norman well to the northeast of the islands. The official forecast track lies close to the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through 72 h, and then is close to the consensus aids HCCA and FSSE after that. The shear that has been affecting Norman appears to have weakened some this morning, and that decreasing trend is expected to continue throughout the forecast period, becoming near zero in 48-72 h according to the ECMWF model. The GFS model shows a similar decreasing shear trend, but just not as much as the ECMWF model. The HWRF and HMON models also have the shear decreasing and do a complete reversal by re-strengthening Norman into a major hurricane again during the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening thereafter. For now, the official intensity forecast shows little change in strength for the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening during the remainder of the forecast period as the cyclone encounters drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures near 26C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.2N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.3N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 148.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-01 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 803 FOPZ11 KNHC 011454 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 53 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 19(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 68(69) 6(75) X(75) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 5(36) X(36) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 6(43) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 25N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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