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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-23 17:19:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 14:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 15:07:21 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-23 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231446 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since yesterday at this time. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an appearance. Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over next three days. However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid intensification. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward. Unfortunately, no new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis and prediction remain about the same. The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave passes recently and no eye being seen yet. However, the available fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier analyzed. The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast time. The track guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise quite close in longitude. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-08-23 16:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231446 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 18(22) 8(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 38(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 47(62) X(62) X(62) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-23 16:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 the center of MARIE was located near 14.6, -106.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 7
2014-08-23 16:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 ...MARIE INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 106.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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