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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-22 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective intensity guidance. The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-08-22 16:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221431 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 35(46) 3(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 1(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 39(75) 3(78) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 2(28) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-22 16:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of MARIE was located near 13.1, -102.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
2014-08-22 11:19:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 08:35:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 09:07:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-22 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the center. Since that time, the convective pattern has become significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system is now a 40-kt tropical storm. Earlier microwave data indicated that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are favorable. With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a hurricane in about 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches cooler waters. The statistical-dynamical models are also incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category 4 hurricane in 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the guidance. This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the forecast period. Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt. A mid-level high is centered near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending westward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to build westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. The model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this advisory to follow the overall model trend. It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a large cyclone in a few days. The forecast wind radii have been expanded, but additional increases may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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