je.st
news
Tag: simon
Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 18
2014-10-06 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 117.6W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
public
simon
storm
Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-10-06 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-10-06 04:41:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060241 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 117.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 117.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.6N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
simon
storm
advisory
Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-05 23:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 20:43:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 21:05:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-10-05 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052042 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Simon has found that the cyclone's maximum winds continue to decrease quickly. The plane measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and surface-based SFMR winds as high as 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which could be generous. UW-CIMSS analyses and the SHIPS output indicate that southwesterly shear has increased to about 20 kt, and satellite imagery suggests that Simon's circulation is beginning to decouple. With the cyclone expected to remain over 24-25C water and in a highly sheared environment during the next few days, continued rapid weakening is anticipated. The updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous forecast mainly due to the adjusted initial intensity, and Simon is likely to become a tropical depression in 36 hours and a remnant low by 48 hours, before it reaches the Baja California peninsula. Forecast fields from the global models indicate that the cyclone will have dissipated over northwestern Mexico by day 4, which is indicated in the official forecast. Simon has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/8 kt. The hurricane is currently moving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered near the west coast of Mexico, and it should turn northward and then northeastward around this feature during the next 48-72 hours. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the future track of Simon, but there continues to be disagreement on how fast Simon or its remnants reach the Baja California peninsula. For example, the GFS and ECMWF solutions are about 24 hours apart on when they bring the center of Simon to the coast. The updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one after 24 hours but is relatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.4N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.2N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 25.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 26.2N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 27.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
simon
forecast
Sites : [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] next »