je.st
news
Tag: simon
Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-05 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SIMON WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 the center of SIMON was located near 23.4, -117.5 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
simon
hurricane
ep4ep192014
Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 17
2014-10-05 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052042 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SIMON WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 117.5W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
public
simon
advisory
Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-10-05 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052042 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-05 17:09:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 14:45:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Oct 2014 15:05:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-10-05 16:49:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051449 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 Simon continues to weaken. The distribution of deep convection has become more asymmetric during the last 12 hours, and there has been a general warming of cloud top temperatures. The cyclone's cloud canopy has also been expanding over the northern semicircle while eroding some to the south. This transformation of the cloud pattern is primarily related to an increase in southwesterly shear over the hurricane, as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB is used to reduce the initial intensity to 85 kt. As Simon gains latitude during the next couple of days, a further increase in shear is expected in association with a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough several hundred miles west of the coast of southern California. The abrupt and substantial increase in shear, combined with water temperatures around 25 deg C and other considerably less conducive thermodynamic conditions, should result in a rapid decay of the cyclone. Global models show the low- to mid-level centers of Simon decoupling around 48 hours, and Simon should become a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows rapid weakening over the next 48 hours and is in excellent agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/09. Simon is moving into a region of weak steering on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered near western Mexico. This synoptic pattern should result in the cyclone's gradual turning toward the north with a decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. The previously mentioned shortwave trough should cause Simon to turn northeastward within 48 hours, with Simon or its remnants likely moving over the north-central portion of the Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period. The NHC forecast has not changed much relative to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus, substantially slower than the GFS solution which brings Simon inland over northwestern Mexico in 72 hours. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.9N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.6N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.4N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 26.2N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 28.2N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 29.7N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
simon
forecast
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] next »