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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 4
2014-10-02 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 ...SIMON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 107.1W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-10-02 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 110.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 113.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-02 11:08:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 08:38:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 09:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-02 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 Satellite images indicate that curved banding features have become better established during the last several hours, and the low-level center is now estimated to be located beneath the deep convection. Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS all support raising the initial wind speed to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Simon. This is the 18th named storm of the busy 2014 hurricane season in the east Pacific basin. Simon is expected to strengthen during the next few days while the storm remains over warm water and within a fairly low wind shear and moist environment. The combination of an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler water should stop the strengthening trend in about 3 days, and induce a gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus, given the expected favorable conditions during the next few days, leaning toward the more aggressive SHIPS model. Simon is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days while the storm is steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. The model guidance is in fair agreement during that time period, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The guidance diverges significantly beyond that time period, however, with many of the models showing a turn to the north and then northeast toward large-scale troughing over the U.S. Conversely, the ECMWF shows less interaction with the trough and takes the storm farther west. The NHC track forecast lies on the western side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5, similar to the previous forecast, but confidence at the longer range is low at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.1N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.5N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-02 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SIMON JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 the center of SIMON was located near 18.1, -106.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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