je.st
news
Tag: simon
Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-04 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 the center of SIMON was located near 20.2, -113.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Tags: summary
simon
hurricane
ep4ep192014
Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 12
2014-10-04 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 ...SIMON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 113.8W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SIMON IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE SIMON LATER TODAY. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
public
simon
advisory
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-10-04 16:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041446 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
simon
advisory
forecast
Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-04 11:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 08:49:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 09:05:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
hurricane
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-10-04 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040856 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 Microwave satellite imagery between 0000 UTC and 0500 UTC indicate that the inner-core convection had been unable to consolidate around the center and maintain a closed eye feature. A 0442 UTC AMSU overpass revealed that the eye of Simon was open in the northwest quadrant. Since that time, however, infrared satellite imagery indicates that a warm spot has developed near the center of a more symmetrical and growing CDO feature, suggesting that Simon might finally be getting more vertically coherent. The initial intensity has been increased to 75 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and the recent appearance of a warm spot in the CDO cloud canopy. The initial motion is 290/10 kt, which is based on several microwave satellite positions. There is basically no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The 00 UTC model guidance shows less divergence than previous runs, especially through 36 hours. After that time, the models show some noticeable difference on when and where Simon is expected to gradually recurve to the northeast when the cyclone nears the subtropical ridge axis that is situated along 23N-24N latitude. The GFS, GFS-ensemble mean, and HWRF models show a sharper and earlier turn to the northeast by about 48 hours due to a weaker ridge, whereas the ECMWF, UKMET, GFDL and NAVGEM models have Simon moving farther west and making a wider and slower turn. Given the high amplitude nature of the large mid-latitude ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific and the deepening trough over the eastern United States, which should help to sustain the current steering flow pattern, the official forecast leans more toward the farther west and slower recurvature model solutions. The NHC forecast track is similar to but a little to the west of the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCN. The global models indicate that the current impressive outflow and low vertical wind shear patterns surrounding Simon are expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours or so. However, the most significant strengthening, possibly even rapid intensification, is most likely to occur during the next 24 hours while the hurricane remains over sea-surface temperatures of 27-28C and where the depth of the warm water is sufficient to prevent any significant cold upwelling beneath Simon. By 36 hours, passage over cooler SSTs should induce gradual weakening, followed by more rapid weakening on Days 4 and 5 when southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase to 25-40 kt. Simon is forecast to become a remnant low by 120 hours, but this could occur sooner if the cyclone moves farther west than the official forecast track is indicating, which would bring the cyclone over colder water. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to conduct a research flight into Simon around 1800 UTC today, at which time a better estimate of the strength of the hurricane will be obtained. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.5N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 114.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.4N 116.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 24.4N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 25.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 26.3N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
simon
forecast
Sites : [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] next »