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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-10-03 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-02 23:08:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 21:01:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-10-02 23:00:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022100 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 The center of Simon has either re-formed or has made a large wobble during the past few hours, as a TRMM overpass at 1827 UTC suggests the center is well southwest of the position seen in earlier SSM/IS overpasses. This requires a southward adjustment of the initial position. The new advisory position is still north of the TRMM position, and an additional adjustment may be required later if no subsequent northward wobble occurs. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with CIMSS ADT and CIRA AMSU estimates. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 280/8. For the next day or so, mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the cyclone should steer Simon generally westward to west-northwestward. From 24-72 hours, the cyclone should turn more northward as it approaches the western end of the ridge. The guidance continues to show significant divergence after that. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, show a northeastward turn between 72-120 hours and bring Simon close to Baja California in 96-120 hours. On the other hand, the the ECMWF and UKMET show a generally northwestward motion that keeps the center well away from land. The track forecast compromises between these extremes by showing a slow northward motion by 120 hours. The new forecast is shifted to the south and west of the previous forecast based on current trends, and it is in best overall agreement with the Florida State Superensemble. Simon is forecast to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 48 hours, which should allow at least steady strengthening. After that, movement over cooler water should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased over the previous forecast in best overall agreement with the SHIPS model, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. An alternative forecast scenario is that rapid intensification begins in the next 12-24 hours, with Simon becoming significantly stronger than forecast. This scenario is supported by above average probabilities in the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model, and by the TRMM data, which suggests Simon is developing a small inner core. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.3N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.6N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.7N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-10-02 22:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 022049 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 72(74) 8(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 39(39) 9(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 14(28) 5(33) 1(34) 1(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-02 22:49:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON STRENGTHENS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 the center of SIMON was located near 18.3, -108.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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