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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-03 10:58:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 the center of SIMON was located near 18.3, -108.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 7
2014-10-03 10:58:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 ...SIMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 108.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN SINALOA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-10-03 10:58:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 34 53(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA SOCORRO 50 10 52(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ISLA SOCORRO 64 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-10-03 10:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030857 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 110.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 114.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 115.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-10-03 10:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030857 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 Microwave satellite images early this morning indicate that the inner-core region of Simon is not particularly well organized. A low-level eye feature has been intermittent since about 0000 UTC, but the most recent images do not show the eye feature any longer. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest that Simon has strengthened to 55-60 kt based on a CDO feature. However, two ASCAT overpasses at 0412 UTC and 0504 UTC only indicated surface winds of 39 kt and 41 kt, respectively. Even allowing for some undersampling due to the compact size of the cyclone likely only yields 45-50 kt. Owing to the lack of persistent central features, the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is an uncertain 280/06 kt and is based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. There remains high confidence that Simon will continue to move westward to west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days as the cyclone navigates around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge located north of the cyclone. After that time, however, the model guidance diverges quite significantly. The overwhelming majority of the guidance recurves Simon toward the north by Day 4 and toward the northeast by Day 5. However, the very reliable ECMWF model takes Simon farther west through Day 5 and does not recurve the cyclone until after this forecast period. Owing to the significant differences in the various model solutions, and out of respect for the ECMWF model, and given that mid-level northwesterly flow patterns are not conducive for recurvature scenarios, the official forecast was only nudged a little to the west of the previous forecast track. Simon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C during the next 24-36 hours while the deep-layer vertical shear is light. However, modest easterly mid-level shear that has been undercutting the otherwise impressive outflow pattern may continue to occasionally disrupt the inner core convection before Simon reaches cooler water and a drier, more stable airmass by Days 4 and 5. As a result, only slow steady strengthening is forecast, which is similar to the SHIPS intensity model and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.3N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.0N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 21.0N 115.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 24.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 25.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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