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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 9

2014-10-03 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 110.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 110.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2014-10-03 22:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032040 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 64 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X 13(13) 5(18) 2(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics

2014-10-03 17:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Oct 2014 14:43:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Oct 2014 15:05:44 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)

2014-10-03 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SIMON NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 the center of SIMON was located near 18.6, -109.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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