je.st
news
Tag: simon
Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 5
2014-10-02 22:49:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 022049 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 ...SIMON STRENGTHENS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 108.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. SIMON IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
public
simon
storm
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-10-02 22:49:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 022049 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.6N 109.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
simon
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-02 17:08:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 15:07:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 15:04:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
simon
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-02 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021445 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 First-light visible imagery shows that Simon is gradually becoming better organized. The center is under a ragged central dense overcast, and outer bands are occurring in all quadrants except the north. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt, while recent AMSU and SATCON estimates from CIMSS are 35-40 kt. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, but this could be a little conservative. The initial motion is 295/9, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 2 days or so while the storm is steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. The model guidance is in fair agreement during that time period, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The guidance continues to show significant divergence after 48 hours. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, show a northeastward turn between 72-120 hours, while the the ECMWF and UKMET show a generally northward motion. In addition, the NAVGEM shows a west-northwestward motion through the entire forecast period. The track forecast compromises between these extremes by showing a slow northward motion by 120 hours. Overall, the new forecast is similar to, but faster than, the previous forecast. However, it is notably slower than the consensus model TVCE from 72-120 hours. Simon is forecast to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 48 hours. This should allow at least steady strengthening, and there is an above normal chance for rapid strengthening as shown by the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model. After 48 hours, the center is expected to move over cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of westerly shear. These conditions should cause a weakening trend, albeit at a slower rate than seen during Rachel a few days ago. The new intensity forecast is increased above that of the previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.4N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.4N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 24.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
simon
storm
Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-02 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 the center of SIMON was located near 18.4, -107.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
simon
storm
tropical
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »