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Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)

2014-10-04 10:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SIMON STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 the center of SIMON was located near 19.5, -112.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 11

2014-10-04 10:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 ...SIMON STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 112.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SIMON COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE SIMON LATER TODAY. SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2014-10-04 10:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040849 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 11

2014-10-04 10:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040848 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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