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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-10-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040241 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 Satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65 kt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North Pacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very near or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that island provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in determining the structure of Simon. The cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well- defined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in several microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon has the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius water and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of Simon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak intensity in a day or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern edge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and approaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This pattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north during the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond 3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone either recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins to meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a weaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move little while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The last portion of the forecast is highly uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.2N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-04 04:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 the center of SIMON was located near 19.2, -111.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 10
2014-10-04 04:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 ...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 111.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON MOVED VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO ISLAND ...MEXICO A FEW HOURS AGO...AND AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC..IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/HR AND A GUST TO 69 MPH...112 KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN SIMON PASSED NEAR THAT ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-10-04 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040240 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-10-04 04:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040240 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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