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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-03 05:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Oct 2014 02:37:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Oct 2014 03:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-03 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 A series of microwave overpasses during the past few hours confirmed that Simon is a little south and east of previous estimates, and that the cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 4 kt. Although the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with more symmetric convection and better-defined outflow, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds are still 45 kt. The CIMSS-ADT indicate that Simon could be a little stronger. Simon is forecast to move soon over a pool of even warmer water and the shear is light. This should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for Simon to become a hurricane in about 24 hours. In fact, rapid intensification is not out of the question since the SHIPS-RI index has increased again tonight. After 3 days, the circulation of the cyclone will begin to feel the influence of cooler waters and a stable environment, and gradual weakening should commence. There is high confidence that Simon will gradually turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed during the next 3 days while the cyclone is located on the southwestern side of the high pressure system over Mexico. Most of the track guidance agree with this scenario. After that time, the confidence in the track forecast is quite low since the GFS together with its dependent models recurve the cyclone toward the Baja California peninsula. On the contrary, the ECMWF keeps Simon moving westward over open waters. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two extremes, and for now keeps Simon drifting northward by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.5N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-10-03 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 1(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 80(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 64(64) 4(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 25(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 22(25) 14(39) 4(43) 1(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-03 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 the center of SIMON was located near 18.1, -108.2 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm SIMON Public Advisory Number 6
2014-10-03 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 ...SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 108.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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