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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...POORLY DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION WOBBLING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 128.4W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 128.4 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). Some erratic motion toward the west is possible for the next day or so, followed by a slow west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-31 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning, Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. There continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature. The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity. Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very near hurricane strength. The aforementioned ASCAT data was also used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range forecast times. Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance, near HCCA. Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope for that portion of the forecast. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but the more skillful models like the GFS and ECMWF show some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east. These interactions will likely cause some slow downs and an erratic motion at times during the forecast period. There continues to be a fair amount of spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, and the new forecast is a little to the north of the previous based on the latest guidance. This track prediction is slightly slower than the consensus aids, and has given more weight to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.1N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 312035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 117.9W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 117.9 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-07-31 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 312035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 78 20(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 22 65(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 120W 64 3 54(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 31(48) 13(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 7(36) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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