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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010236 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 64 43 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 24(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 4(42) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 118.7W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 118.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday. By Monday, Hilda is expected to slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010235 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-07-31 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-31 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor appearance in satellite imagery. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT data suggest that either the center has reformed farther to the southwest near a small burst of deep convection, or that that feature is just a smaller swirl rotating around the larger gyre envelope. Thus, the estimated center location is an average between the previous center position and the small center noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast tack or reasoning. After 72 hours, the models remain is major disagreement on how much, if any, binary interaction occurs between the depression and Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east. The new 12Z GFS model remains the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF again the weakest with little interaction with Hilda. The remainder of the NHC track guidance lies somewhere in between these two extremes. As in the previous advisory, the best call for now is to punt by remaining close to the previous forecast track, with the new official NHC track forecast still lying inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the ECMWF solution to the south and the consensus models farther north. The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120 hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern semicircle, which would induce weakening. The previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory, which continues to show little strengthening for the next 48 hours, followed by only modest intensification thereafter. However, this remains a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.6N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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