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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-24 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-09-24 16:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 13:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 11:36:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 09:32:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 13:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM KAREN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 17.2, -65.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-09-24 13:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241136 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM KAREN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 65.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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