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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 10A
2019-09-24 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241745 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Karen has moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has re-formed a little to the west. However, it is expected to resume a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 16:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:54:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:31:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-24 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory. The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120 h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain. The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 17.5, -65.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-24 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 241451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 34 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 1(50) SAINT CROIX 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 1(39) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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