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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:58:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:58:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-24 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240851 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 During the last pass through Karen's center around 0430 UTC, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported some believable SFMR winds of 34-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant and an extrapolated central pressure of 1006 mb. The 925-mb flight-level height had also decreased by almost 20 meters in about 2 hours, an indication that the lower pressure estimate was legitimate. Reflectivity and velocity data from the San Juan NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar also enunciate that Karen's inner-core has become better defined over the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34 kt and 40 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Based on the recon and satellite intensity data, Karen has re-strengthened to tropical storm status. The initial motion is now northward or 360/06 kt. Karen's forecast track hinges heavily on the future intensity and associated vertical structure of the cyclone. The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days 3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower, especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus models that incorporate those three models. None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model, despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen's decent wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29 deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM. Key Messages: 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.8N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-24 10:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 240850 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VIEQUES PR 34 16 23(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) SAINT THOMAS 34 5 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) SAINT CROIX 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 10:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 16.8, -65.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-24 10:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KAREN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 65.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the San Juan Doppler radar near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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