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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-25 10:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images. Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south. The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day 5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-25 10:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 20.5, -65.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 13
2019-09-25 10:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-09-25 10:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 250852 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-09-25 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250850 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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