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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-25 08:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 06:00:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:31:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-25 07:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 19.8, -65.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-25 07:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250559 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-25 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 02:42:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:31:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-25 04:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250237 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined. The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002 or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an elongated trough of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within the larger circulation. Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same generaldirection for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone, will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the solution provided by most of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.1N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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