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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 43
2016-09-25 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...KARL ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 58.0W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 845 MI...1365 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 58.0 West. Karl is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Karl is expected to be at hurricane intensity when it becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Karl will continue affecting Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 43
2016-09-25 04:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 58.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 58.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 59.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.2N 51.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 44.6N 41.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 58.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 42
2016-09-24 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 242041 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 The convective pattern of Karl has become less organized today and currently resembles a shear pattern, which isn't surprising given the 35 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over Karl by UW-CIMSS. A GPM overpass from earlier today showed that the inner-core structure of the cyclone had degraded, and this was also noted by the last aircraft flight this morning. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample Karl and provide more data on its current intensity and structure. Karl is expected to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours, but much of this will be due to baroclinic effects as the cyclone will be under very high shear and moving over cooler SSTs. The NHC forecast shows Karl reaching 70 kt at 24 h as a post-tropical cyclone based on the GFS and ECMWF guidance. Karl should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 36 h, as indicated by global model fields. The initial motion estimate is 055/20. Karl should continue to accelerate on an east-northeastward to northeastward heading ahead of a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the forward speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 33.6N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 36.4N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 41.9N 45.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2016-09-24 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 242040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-24 22:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 33.6, -61.1 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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