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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 38
2016-09-23 22:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232049 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 Satellite imagery contintues to show a well-developed outflow pattern around Karl with the center noted on the southeastern edge of the colder cloud tops. Aircraft reconnaissance data has indicated a gradual drop in pressure to 988 mb, based on a dropsonde report of 989 mb with 12 kt of wind at the surface. A peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt was measured, which equates to an surface intensity of 50 kt. Reliable SFMR data also showed maximum surface winds around 50 kt, and that will remain the initial intensity. Latest aircraft fixes had also indicated that Karl was beginning to turn more northward as it moves around the western edge of the mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge. Karl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between 29-30C for the next 24 hours or so while at the same time, some brief relaxation in the vertical shear is forecast. These conditions should favor some continued slow strenghthening, which is generally supported by a majority of models. The models also suggest that Karl could reach hurricane strength by 24 hours as the system moves to the east of Bermuda. Continued strengthening of Karl is likely through 36 hours, then it is expected to gradually transition to extratropical status by 48 hours as it becomes absorbed by a rapidly approaching cold front. The latest official forecast has shifted Karl slightly west of the previous track during the next 12 hours, but otherwise, there are no significant changes from the previous advisory. Karl should make a sharp turn and acceleration to the northeast beyond 12 hours as it encounters increasing westerly flow in advance of an amplifying upper trough and associated cold front across the northwest Atlantic. Karl should then become absorbed by another extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 29.9N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 31.3N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.7N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 37.1N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 42.0N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Sullivan/Berg
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2016-09-23 22:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 232049 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 65 8(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BERMUDA 50 9 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL MAINTAINING 60-MPH WINDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of KARL was located near 29.9, -65.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 38
2016-09-23 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...KARL MAINTAINING 60-MPH WINDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 65.1W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h) but is expected to turn sharply toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Karl is forecast to move near or east of Bermuda during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Karl is forecast to reach hurricane intensity on Saturday and then should become post-tropical on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across Bermuda and will continue through early Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Sullivan/Berg
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 38
2016-09-23 22:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232048 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 65.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 65.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.3N 64.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 33.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 37.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 42.0N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 120SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 65.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG
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