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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 42
2016-09-24 22:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 61.1W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 61.1 West. Karl is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl is expected to be at hurricane intensity when it becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Karl will continue affecting Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 42
2016-09-24 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242039 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.1W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 190SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.1W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...215NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 41.9N 45.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-24 17:30:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 14:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2016 15:26:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 41
2016-09-24 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 Data from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into Karl earlier this morning found peak flight-level winds of 63 kt at 8,000 ft and a peak SFMR wind of 47 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this could be a little generous. The latest minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde from the aircraft is 994 mb. Karl is still expected to strengthen, but it seems likely that this will be at least partly due to baroclinic effects, as the global models shows Karl intensifying while the shear increases to over 50 kt by 24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast follows this trend, and keeps Karl as a 70-kt cyclone with a very large wind field when it becomes post-tropical in 36 hours. The circulation of Karl should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic by 48 hours, as shown in the global model solutions. The aircraft last fixed the center on the southeastern side of the deep convection, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/16. Karl should accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a broad deep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic until it is absorbed, with the forward speed expected to reach 50 kt by 36 hours. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast of Karl's post- tropical phase has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 32.8N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 34.8N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 38.9N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-24 16:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON BERMUDA AS KARL HEADS FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 32.8, -62.7 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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