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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 21A
2015-06-16 01:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152331 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...COMPACT CARLOS REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 103.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 103.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, followed by steady weakening. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 22:58:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 20:58:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 20:50:48 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-06-15 22:56:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152056 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along with SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two dropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62 and 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos has been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1 hurricane once again. The initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model guidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after 36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to take a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the ECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a little stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Given the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the large low pressure system currently located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track to the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the preferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. The general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to continue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of light shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight strengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact nature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be short-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity during that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into unfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting with the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating into a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is expected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2015-06-15 22:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152053 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 20(21) 24(45) 6(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 21(22) 18(40) 4(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.0, -103.0 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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