je.st
news
Tag: carlos
Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 20
2015-06-15 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 102.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Lazaro Cardenas, and has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A United States Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday. Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 13:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 11:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 09:03:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
carlos
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 13:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.9, -102.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
carlos
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 19A
2015-06-15 13:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151136 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...COMPACT CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 102.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again by early Tuesday. Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-06-15 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150839 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Carlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours. A subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in the overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds. The subjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged as well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be generous. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain, especially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over water and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to indicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as a category 1 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise of both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in 24 hours. Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is expected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment. Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast calls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and dissipation at day 5. It appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the building mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now moving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on this track through the 36 hour period. Afterwards, the dynamical models show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of Carlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward the coast of Mexico. The official forecast reflects this expected change in the steering pattern. The NHC forecast is again shifted to the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Carlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Sites : [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] next »