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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 21

2015-06-15 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152053 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...HURRICANE CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Punta San Telmo. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, followed by steady weakening. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 21

2015-06-15 22:50:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152050 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics

2015-06-15 19:53:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 17:53:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 15:03:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-15 19:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.9, -102.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 20A

2015-06-15 19:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151751 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 102.8W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Reports from an United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, once again making Carlos a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Carlos remains a small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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