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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 14:43:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 14:39:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-06-15 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 First-light visible satellite imagery indicates Carlos remains a very small tropical cyclone. An earlier GCOM-AMSR microwave pass also indicated the compact nature of the system, including a closed 5-10 nmi diameter eye. The consensus of satellite intensity estimates is 55 kt, but we'll hold the initial intensity at 60 kt pending the arrival of a United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft. The initial motion estimate is 290/05 kt. Carlos is expected to maintain a slow west-northwestward motion and move essentially parallel to the south-central coast of Mexico for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, there is a distinct bifurcation in the model guidance with how strong the mid-level ridge across northern Mexico and Texas is forecast to be. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models keep the ridge stronger and also weaken Carlos, resulting in the cyclone moving westward at 48 hours and beyond. In contrast, the ECMWF and GFDL models weaken the ridge and keep Carlos stronger, and gradually move the cyclone northwestward and then northward near the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time. Given that the large low pressure system currently located over the central Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move inland over Texas by 48 hours, which should act to weaken the mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of Carlos, the ECMWF-GFDL solution is preferred at this time. The NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, and GFDL forecast tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. The very small size of Carlos makes the cyclone susceptible to small fluctuations in the vertical wind shear. However, the general trend in the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is calling for the shear to decrease to less than 5 kt by 48 hours and beyond, which should allow for some strengthening to occur over 29C SSTs . Carlos is expected to weaken into a depression by 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment, becoming a remnant low by 96 hrs, and dissipating by 120 hrs. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-06-15 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 15(15) 26(41) 7(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 19(19) 20(39) 5(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 11 5(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.0, -102.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-06-15 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151439 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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