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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM CARLOS HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.7, -101.3 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-06-15 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC MON JUN 15 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 16(31) 1(32) 1(33) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 16(41) 9(50) X(50) 1(51) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 14(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 35 30(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 1(72) L CARDENAS 50 4 16(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) L CARDENAS 64 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 44 6(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ZIHUATANEJO 50 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 17(23) 2(25) 1(26) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 01:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 23:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 21:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 01:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.5, -101.0 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 17A
2015-06-15 01:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142330 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 101.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical- storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (5 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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