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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics

2015-06-14 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 20:34:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 20:32:44 GMT

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2015-06-14 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 18(26) 3(29) 1(30) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 21(38) 3(41) 1(42) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 5( 6) 17(23) 21(44) 15(59) 1(60) X(60) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 1 7( 8) 21(29) 20(49) 13(62) X(62) 1(63) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 38 38(76) 7(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) L CARDENAS 50 2 30(32) 8(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) L CARDENAS 64 X 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 68 12(80) 2(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ZIHUATANEJO 50 12 12(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 64 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 14 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P MALDONADO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20(27) 5(32) 2(34) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-14 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.4, -100.9 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 17

2015-06-14 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 100.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 100.9 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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