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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 19:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.3, -100.7 with movement NW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 16A
2015-06-14 19:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141758 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 ...CARLOS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 100.7W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 100.7 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 4 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-14 17:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 14:53:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jun 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-06-14 16:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the previous advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates that the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well. Based on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering currents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge should force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours, the cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and could move inland. Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation of Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global and regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower than the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model. Sea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this morning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled beneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion. The colder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow and modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the short term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected to begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an environment of light shear later today, restrengthening back to hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday morning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall occurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to which Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity model and the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-14 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 the center of CARLOS was located near 15.9, -100.4 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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