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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 07:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 05:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-15 07:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 16.7, -101.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 18A
2015-06-15 07:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150535 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 101.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, a small deviation to the north of the track would bring the center of Carlos closer to the coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight. Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-15 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 02:32:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 02:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-06-15 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the past few hours. The convection surrounding the intermittent eye feature has been fluctuating in intensity and is located mostly to the east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are lower that earlier, but still suggest an initial intensity of 60 kt. The intensity forecast is uncertain. Most of the global guidance, especially the GFS, basically dissipate the cyclone in the short term, and none of the other models suggest any significant strengthening. Given that Carlos will be moving into a low shear environment and over warm waters for the next day or so, the NHC forecast calls for a very slight strengthening, if at all. Beyond 3 days, the interaction of the circulation with the high terrain of Mexico should result in weakening. The weakening could occur much faster, if an earlier turn to the north-northwest toward land materializes, as indicated by the GFS. The steering currents remain weak and Carlos is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt. A weakness north of the cyclone should encourage a gradual north-northwesterly turn, and this is the solution of the ECMWF and the GFS. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the left of these two models and the previous official forecast, and is very close to the multi-model consensus. It is difficult to forecast if the cyclone will even exist beyond 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.7N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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