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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-07-08 04:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 111.6W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 111.6W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-07 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 20:39:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 21:33:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-07 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 17(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 8( 8) 51(59) 17(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 18(18) 18(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 1(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 19(42) 1(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-07 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 The area of low pressure several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized during the past several hours. Earlier microwave images and current enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show well-developed deep convective spiral bands over the northeast and southwest quadrants. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that surface circulation has become more symmetric and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the convective band to the northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is being classified as a tropical storm at this time. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt based primarily on the scatterometer data. Eugene is expected to remain in an environment of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist low- to mid-level troposphere through 48 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to traverse decreasing SSTs, which should induce a slow weakening through the remainder of the period. The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the IVCN multi-model consensus and shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before moving over cooler waters. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A retrograding mid-tropospheric trough currently centered over northwestern Mexico has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will allow Eugene to continue moving northwestward through day 5. The global and ensemble models are in good agreement with this large-scale scenario, although the UKMET is a bit of an outlier on the left side of the guidance suite. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, and is close to the multi-model TVCN and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 11.9N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.8N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.1N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.6N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.4N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-07 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 the center of Eugene was located near 11.9, -111.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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