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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-07-09 16:56:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091456 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 Eugene's eye is becoming more distinct this morning and cold cloud tops in the eyewall are wrapping more symmetrically around the center of the hurricane. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have increased, suggesting around 90 kt at 12Z. In the last couple of hours, Eugene's convective structure continues to improve and the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique currently indicates a substantially higher intensity. A blend of these estimates gives 100 kt at advisory time and Eugene is now a major hurricane. However, Eugene will be moving from warm to very cool SST, so it is likely that the hurricane will be peaking very soon. Steady to rapid weakening should ensue on Monday due to the hurricane ingesting dry and stable air into its inner core. It is anticipated that the system will lose its deep convection in about three days - if not sooner - and no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than indicated in the previous advisory, and is based upon a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM statistical models and the COAMPS-TC dynamical guidance. Eugene has sped up some and is now moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving in the same general direction and speed during the next 36 hours or so, due to the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the southwestern United States. As Eugene weakens, it should be steered toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of speed by the lower tropospheric tradewinds. The official track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique through three days and upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models thereafter. This track prediction is very similar to that from the previous advisory, except slightly more to the west at days four and five. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.0N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Hurricane Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-09 16:56:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 the center of Eugene was located near 16.0, -114.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory Number 8
2017-07-09 16:56:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017 ...EUGENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 114.6W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 114.6 West. Eugene is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane should continue moving in this direction and speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Eugene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening should begin on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-07-09 16:56:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 091456 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 76 7(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA CLARION 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 20N 115W 34 2 21(23) 4(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 41(46) 13(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 1(21) 1(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-07-09 16:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091455 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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