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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-08 04:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 02:39:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 03:22:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-08 04:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 Eugene is gradually becoming better organized this evening, with infrared and microwave satellite imagery showing a large band of convection developing over the southeastern semicircle. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The initial motion is 315/8. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the previous advisory. A mid- to upper-level low moving westward from northwestern Mexico and an upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery near 19N 120W have created a weakness in the subtropical ridge west of the Baja California peninsula. This feature is likely to persist through 120 h allowing Eugene to move steadily northwestward into the weakness through the forecast period. The new forecast track is near the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope. Eugene is currently in an environment of light shear and warm water with good to excellent outflow in all directions. The large-scale models forecast the shear to remain light until the storm moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures in about 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening until 48 h, with the new forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. It should be noted that the rapid intensification index of the SHIPS model responds to the nearly ideal environment by showing a better than a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h. So, an alternative forecast scenario is for rapid intensification if Eugene develops a well-defined inner core. After 48 h, Eugene should weaken steadily to rapidly over the cooler water, with the system now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low over 21C sea surface temperatures by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 12.5N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.3N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-08 04:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 32(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 27(28) 46(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 15(31) 1(32) X(32) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 14(50) X(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-08 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 the center of Eugene was located near 12.5, -111.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 2
2017-07-08 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017 ...EUGENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 111.6W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 111.6 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Eugene is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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