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Hurricane EUGENE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-07-10 04:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100234 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 23 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 2 35(37) 10(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane EUGENE (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-10 04:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 9 the center of EUGENE was located near 17.6, -115.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane EUGENE Public Advisory Number 10
2017-07-10 04:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 ...EUGENE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 115.9W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 115.9 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but Eugene is forecast to move over cooler waters and begin to weaken more quickly on Monday or Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Eugene Graphics
2017-07-09 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 20:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 21:22:09 GMT
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-07-09 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092031 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 Eugene continues to have a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. A blend of both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies yield an initial intensity of 100 kt. The hurricane has the opportunity to strengthen a little more within the next 12 hours or so, before the circulation of Eugene begins to move over cooler waters of 24 degrees Celsius or lower. After that time, weakening should begin, and the cyclone should become post-tropical in about 3 days. This forecast follows both statistical models and the consensus. Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is embedded within a well established steering flow around a mid-level ridge over the western United States, and this pattern will keep Eugene on the same general track for the next 3 days. Once the cyclone weakens, it could turn more to the west-northwest with the low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the consensus primarily during the next 3 days and does not depart much from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.7N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 26.5N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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