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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 5
2017-07-08 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 ...EUGENE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...MOST LIKELY WILL BE ONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 113.4W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 113.4 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eugene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-07-08 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 115W 34 34 45(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 115W 50 2 33(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 115W 64 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 26(53) 1(54) X(54) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-07-08 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082030 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 115.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.8N 122.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-08 16:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 14:36:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 14:36:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-08 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 Eugene's cloud pattern has improved significantly since yesterday, and it now consists of a cyclonically-curved convective band wrapping around the center. The upper-level outflow continues to be very well established in all quadrants. Based on the average of intensity estimates of T3.0 and T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMMS, the winds have been increased to 50 kt in this advisory. Eugene has the opportunity to gather some strength and become a hurricane during the next 24 hours or so. However, after that time, a portion of the circulation will begin to reach cooler waters and drier air resulting in gradual weakening. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 knots around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the tightly-packed track guidance. No important changes to the previous NHC forecast are necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.5N 115.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.9N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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