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Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory Number 6
2017-07-09 04:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 ...EUGENE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 113.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 113.5 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours. After that time, Eugene is expected to weaken as it moves over colder water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-07-09 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090234 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.4N 114.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 26.0N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-08 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 20:37:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Jul 2017 20:37:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-08 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 The cloud pattern in visible images looks much better than the infrared presentation. Eugene appears to be developing a banding type eye, and the outflow remains fair. Dvorak estimates are now T3.5 and T4.0, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Eugene has the opportunity to gather more strength and become a hurricane tonight. However, beyond 24 hours a portion of the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual weakening. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity forecast brings the winds a little bit higher than the earlier forecast, but beyond 24 hours, the forecast is similar to the previous one. Eugene is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 knots, steered by the flow around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak mid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this steering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track during the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the tightly-packed track guidance, and very close to the multi-model consensus. No important changes to the previous NHC forecast track are necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.7N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.7N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.2N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.8N 116.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 22.0N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.8N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1800Z 25.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-08 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...MOST LIKELY WILL BE ONE TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 the center of Eugene was located near 13.7, -113.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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