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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-07-09 10:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Eugene Graphics
2017-07-09 04:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 02:41:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Jul 2017 02:41:32 GMT
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-09 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090236 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017 Eugene has strengthened rapidly over the past 24 h and has reached hurricane strength during the past few hours. Recent microwave imagery indicates that a 25 n mi wide eye has formed, and this feature has also appeared sporadically in visible and infrared imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range. The hurricane continues to have good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions as it remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear. Smoothing through the wobbles of the formative eye, the initial motion is 320/7. The hurricane is moving toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, and the track forecast guidance is in good agreement that a northwestward motion should continue through the forecast period, with some increase in forward speed during the first 24 h and some decrease in forward speed after 72 h. The guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Eugene should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment for about the next 24 h. Thus, additional strengthening is expected, with the main question being will the current rate of intensification continue. The forecast peak intensity is increased to 90 kt, which is above the intensity guidance but could be conservative if the intensification rate does not decrease. After 24 hours, the cyclone should move over colder water, with the sea surface temperature along the forecast track expected to be near 21C by 96 h. This should cause Eugene to steadily or rapidly weaken after 24 h, with the system expected to decay to a remnant low by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.4N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.4N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.2N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 24.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 26.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-07-09 04:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090235 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 09 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 33(34) 16(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 60 9(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 115W 50 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 15(18) 3(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 11(45) 1(46) X(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-09 04:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 the center of Eugene was located near 14.4, -113.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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