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Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory Number 11
2017-07-10 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100848 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 ...EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 116.5W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Eugene moves over colder water. Eugene is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California by tonight and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-07-10 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100848 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 118.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 120.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane EUGENE Graphics
2017-07-10 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Jul 2017 02:40:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Jul 2017 02:40:42 GMT
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Hurricane EUGENE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-07-10 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100236 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 After steadily intensifying during the past couple of days, the strengthening trend of Eugene appears to have ended. The eye of the hurricane has become cloud-filled and ragged, and the convection in the eyewall is not quite as symmetric as it was earlier today. In addition, recent microwave images indicate that the eyewall has eroded on its east side. The Dvorak CI-numbers are 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus estimate is 92 kt. Based on these values, the initial wind speed of Eugene is lowered to 90 kt. The current weakening of Eugene appears to be associated with some dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water images. The hurricane still has about another 12 hours over warm water and in a low wind shear environment, so little change in strength is expected overnight. Eugene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm on Monday, and then move over progressively cooler waters later in the week. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should cause steady, or even rapid, weakening beginning on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the consensus models and brings Eugene below hurricane strength in 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over water temperatures of around 20 C, which should cause the convection to dissipate. Eugene is moving northwestward at about 10 kt on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system located over the southwestern United States. This high is expected to remain in place, which should keep Eugene moving northwestward during the next few days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is predicted when Eugene become a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope for the next few days, and then favors the left side of the guidance when Eugene is predicted to be a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.9N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 26.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane EUGENE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-07-10 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100234 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.9N 117.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 26.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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