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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-21 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.1, -95.3 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 3

2015-10-21 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 95.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Patricia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 95.3 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A motion toward the west with some increase in forward speed is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Wednesday night and a turn toward the northwest by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane by late Wednesday night or on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2015-10-21 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) X(35) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 18(40) X(40) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 13(48) X(48) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 12(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 38(54) 4(58) X(58) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 29(47) 3(50) X(50) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 3

2015-10-21 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PATRICIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W...INLAND NEAR COAST MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 95.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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