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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2015-10-21 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 99.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics

2015-10-21 20:03:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 18:03:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 15:06:38 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-21 20:02:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NOAA PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE PATRICIA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.0, -98.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 5A

2015-10-21 20:02:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211802 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...NOAA PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE PATRICIA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 98.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 98.2 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is likely to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Patricia. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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