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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-22 19:57:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 15.0, -104.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 10

2015-10-22 19:57:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221757 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 104.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 104.0 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today with a reduction in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest and then toward the north is forecast tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through early Friday, and Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2015-10-22 19:56:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1800 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221756 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1800 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 48(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 4( 5) 54(59) 28(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 20(20) 37(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 17(19) 62(81) 6(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 44(45) 13(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 22(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 34 2 14(16) 55(71) 9(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 25(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 26(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2015-10-22 19:56:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1800 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221756 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1800 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 104.0W AT 22/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 104.0W AT 22/1800Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 104.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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