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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-21 13:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 11:43:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 09:06:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-21 13:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 12.9, -96.8 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 4A
2015-10-21 13:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211140 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...PATRICIA NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 96.8W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 96.8 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 9 mph (14 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-10-21 10:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time, with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB. The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The primary steering features over the next few days are a mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall. Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-21 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.0, -96.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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