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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 4
2015-10-21 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210840 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 96.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. Patricia is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-10-21 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210840 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 10(42) X(42) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 8(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 44(58) 4(62) X(62) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 46(63) 3(66) X(66) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 3(29) X(29) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 31(44) 17(61) 1(62) X(62) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 19(36) 11(47) 1(48) X(48) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) P ANGEL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) X(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-10-21 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210840 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 96.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-21 05:15:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 02:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 03:07:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-10-21 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210242 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Although cloud tops have warmed since the previous advisory, the overall convective cloud pattern has become a little better organized. Dropsondes released from a NASA WB-57 aircraft conducting research in Patricia earlier this afternoon for the Office of Naval Research's Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment was helpful in locating the low-level center, and also confirmed the development of a weak mid-level eye-like feature noted in recent passive microwave images. The initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMMS ADT, making the cyclone the 16th named storm of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. This intensity is also supported by dropsonde data in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone between 2000-2200Z, which indicated surface winds of 34-36 kt and also a fairly deep layer of 37-39 kt winds from 1000-925 mb. Winds west of the center were 30 kt, suggesting that the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event may be subsiding. The initial motion estimate is 255/04 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Patricia is expected to move west-southwestward to westward for the next 12 hours or so as the aforementioned gap wind event forces the cyclone a little southward. After that time, Patricia is forecast to turn west-northwestward on Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday as the cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends from the central Gulf of Mexico southwestward into central Mexico. Although there is some spread in the NHC track guidance, the models are in fairly good agreement that Patricia should turn north-northwestward to northward by 72 hours, making landfall in southwestern Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to the consensus models TVCE and GFEX. The large-scale environment of vertical shear less than 5 kt, very high mid-level humidity values in excess of 80 percent, and SSTs greater than 30C support at least steady strengthening until landfall occurs. The possibility of rapid intensification (RI) exists once a distinct eye feature develops, which could develop in 36 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory in calling for Patricia to become a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico, and closely follows the LGEM intensity model. However, if RI should occur, then Patricia will likely be stronger at landfall than the current forecast is indicating. After landfall, the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico. A tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required by Wednesday morning for portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 13.0N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND NEAR COAST 96H 25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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