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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-10-22 04:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220246 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 33(54) X(54) X(54) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 36(45) 25(70) X(70) X(70) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 41(71) 11(82) X(82) X(82) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 12(47) X(47) X(47) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) MANZANILLO 34 X 6( 6) 26(32) 36(68) 9(77) X(77) X(77) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 34 4 12(16) 9(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 8(12) 5(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ACAPULCO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 20(39) X(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-22 04:45:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.5, -100.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics
2015-10-22 01:48:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 23:48:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 21:06:37 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-22 01:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 the center of PATRICIA was located near 13.3, -99.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 6A
2015-10-22 01:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212346 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 99.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 99.9 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should be near the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas by late Thursday or early Friday, and possible within the tropical storm watch area by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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