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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-10-22 16:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221442 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery. The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery. Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the hurricane. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western side of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane PATRICIA (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-22 16:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PATRICIA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO TOMORROW AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 the center of PATRICIA was located near 14.9, -103.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 9
2015-10-22 16:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...PATRICIA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO TOMORROW AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 103.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 103.8 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today with a reduction in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest and then toward the north is forecast tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a major hurricane later today or tonight and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-10-22 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221438 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 48(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 5( 6) 52(58) 28(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 18(18) 38(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 17(20) 61(81) 6(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 13(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 34 3 15(18) 53(71) 9(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) L CARDENAS 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 25(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-10-22 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221438 TCMEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 70SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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